It will be interesting to see how history views this period of rising energy prices during an era of near-stagnant economic growth.
As I see it, such an event could show people not yet touched by the environmental debate of the huge pull that energy has over our lives, and how we have backed ourselves into the proverbial corner with Big Oil. People might buy more efficient vehicles, new car companies might emerge as leaders, and maybe even the White House could install solar panels.
Oh wait, that already happened.
It was called the 70s.
Then Ronald Reagan removed those unsightly solar panels (I mean, really, who would want free power from the sun?), cut taxes, oil was invited back into our bedroom after three or four years of sleeping on the couch, and everyone started buying gas guzzlers again. All of our problems were solved, and, as Craig Finn from The Hold Steady would say, we made love to the interstates.
We're human. If there is a path of least resistance, we generally take it. That's not an indictment on us, but it's also the truth. We are motivated by our own self-interest first, and if it happens to coincide with the interest of others and the planet and the spotted owl, then great.
So the only thing that might be as bad as a precipitous rise in oil prices would be a precipitous fall in oil prices.
Why? Because we've already come back to our wife-beating Big Oil domestic partner once. He promised he'd be nice, sent his sister over to talk to us, and we came back. And now he's doing it again.
Problem is, before, we held more sway. If he was Big Oil, we were the Big Oil Buyer. Now, there are these other countries who need the stuff as badly as we do, like China and India. They can overconsume too, and they have a lot more consumers.
We need to make the move now. Load up a U-Haul, get a storage facility, forward the mail. Only this time, let's not have a magic button. Let's dole it out all over: Solar, Wind, Biodiesel, Ethanol, Biomass, Hydrogen. Play the field.
I foresee Big Oil coming over with flowers and ringing the doorbell once we all buy Toyotas. He'll work our self-esteem issues and tell us how ugly they look next to those status symbols we used to drive. He'll tell us it'll never happen again.
Just like the last time.